The vaccine conundrum
By Mike Jewell
Three weeks into our Level-3 alert, with the prospect of another three weeks of quasi-lockdown, as the domestic outbreak of coronavirus rages on. There is no definite end in sight, but at least the case numbers are showing the first signs of hope, with daily cases decreasing and the number of unknown sources down to a mere handful. On the downside, the virus is creeping into areas beyond Taipei and New Taipei (Xinbei), finding its way into the migrant worker community and the plethora of traditional markets, with their poor ventilation, cramped spaces, and intensely close personal contact.
Taiwan can take pride in the way people have responded to the crisis, with the vast majority dutifully following central and local government recommendations and regulations regarding staying at home, wearing masks, and avoiding personal contact.
Our World In Data’s analysis shows we have settled into a new pattern of living in the past three weeks, spending 18% more time at home than before and largely avoiding public transport, as 25% fewer people go into work every day. However, there are rumblings that “work from home” (WFH) has not been as widely implemented as it should have been, due to Taiwanese management’s deep-seated mistrust of their employees.
There is broad scientific consensus that Covid-19 is spread primarily through close contact indoors and through aerosol particles. Despite official championing of flexible working hours and WFH, Taiwan’s willingness to allow white-collar workers to continue working in the office is a threat to regaining control of the virus spread.
“Here there be dragons”
We are now approaching a major crunch point, Dragon Boat Festival. The last major family event, Mother’s Day on 9 May, is being highlighted as a significant catalyst in the current upsurge, with restaurants packed and extensive domestic travel, even though we knew that we already had three clusters of domestic cases simmering. Within a week, the number of Covid-19 patients took off.
In 2020, Taiwan came through all the major festivals unscathed. Big crowds at popular tourist locations during Qing Ming initially panicked the authorities, but there was no evidence of community spread in the following days, so everyone relaxed and enjoyed the rest of the year largely unconcerned and Chinese New Year this year also passed without incident.
Now though it’s completely different and there are increasingly plaintive urgings coming out from the Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) and even from the president to stay put and enjoy a low-key Dragon Boat weekend. "I ask everyone to stay in your present location this year for the sake of your hometown and your family, considering the Covid-19 outbreak," President Tsai said in an address to the nation.